And Mr. Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, could surprise both. Next, if Romney wins New Hampshire by a smaller-than-expected margin — say, by less than 10 percentage points — he will have underperformed, raising questions about his ability to compete on less-friendly turf. South Carolina, with its large conservative evangelical population, will provide that test in its Jan. After that, the Florida primary Jan. The question will be where the supporters of the dropouts end up going.
Even though he campaigned little in Iowa in the early going, he, his family, and key surrogates — see New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — are all in, waving the Romney flag in the Hawkeye State in the home stretch.
Anything less than a strong second-place finish for Romney on Tuesday will raise eyebrows. Among tea party supporters, Romney and Paul are tied at 17 percent each. The only candidate who performs better is Santorum, at 20 percent. Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, whose overall numbers have taken a dive, polls at 16 percent among tea partyers. Texas Governor Perry gets 15 percent, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann gets 10 percent.
One final caveat: The Iowa caucuses have a habit of producing surprises. Last time, it was former Arkansas Gov. An early clue could come Saturday at 7 p. He'd then have to win South Carolina and Florida to make it a race. That being said, all of those falling into place is unlikely. Perry will likely stay in for South Carolina, as will Santorum if he does well in Iowa.
Bachmann's endorsement wouldn't help him much anyways. Also, the chances of Gingrich doing well top 4 in Iowa is also looking pretty grim. Page created in 0. Pages: [ 1 ]. Kyle Shanahan has defended Jimmy Garoppolo through the first seven weeks, but the 49ers head coach offered perhaps his most blunt criticism of the QB after the loss to the Colts.
Close this content. Read full article. More content below. Joe Scarborough. Mitt Romney. January 2, , PM. In this article:. American cable news and talk radio host, lawyer, author, and former politician. Our goal is to create a safe and engaging place for users to connect over interests and passions. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting. Recommended Stories. In some national polls, it has already vanished.
The same holds for Fred Thompson. Though Iowans were eagerly awaiting his appearance at the straw poll, Fred, too, took a pass. And though he seems ideally suited to the party, he is running so far behind in New Hampshire and Michigan it is hard to see how he survives to reach home base,. There, he is already behind Romney and Huckabee.
Wisely, he is headed for Iowa to put all his chips on a strong showing, hoping Romney and Huckabee will do to each other what Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean did: rip each other out of contention. If Fred does not make a strong showing in Iowa, a prediction: He will drop out and endorse John McCain, who has a shot at repeating his win in New Hampshire.
For if Mitt wins in New Hampshire, none of the three beats him in Michigan, they will not beat him in South Carolina, and they will not beat him in Florida. Can McCain, who kicked away what seemed a near-certain nomination by embracing the Bush-Kennedy amnesty and stiffing the Iowa Straw Poll, win?
Not impossible. If he can win New Hampshire and make himself the national alternative to Huckabee, a desperate GOP establishment might rally to him for lack of an alternative.
He needs an assist. Two losses by Romney in states where he has invested millions would put his campaign on life support. If Romney wins the first two, he is almost surely the nominee. For that would eliminate Rudy, McCain and Thompson, leaving the only man able to stop him in South Carolina, a twice-defeated Mike Huckabee and his Christian prayer warriors.
So, two weeks out from Iowa, here are the odds. Rudy and Thompson each John McCain He has to win New Hampshire, and even if he wins there, he would be an underdog. Grass-roots conservatives do not like him and would prefer Huckabee. Mitt Romney
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